The Bitcoin Realized Cap HODL Wave Index in the picture shows that 1-to-2-year holders are buying more Bitcoin.
At present, the yellow area in the number 5 area on the chart is getting larger, which means that 1y-2y holders are accumulating more BTC. This is as same as what happened in the number 1 area in the past.
If everything happens at the number 5 is identical to number 1, the market will possibly see the same things happening next as numbers 2, 3, and 4.
The current price of BTC is very low and the Fed interest rate, as well as the CPI, are very high. Those things also took place at the point of time of the number 1 area. The corresponding price of this area at the letter A was very low, and at the same time, the Fed rate was very high.
What will happen next with the BTC price at present can be what took place in the number 2 area. The BTC price rocketed and formed a peak at the point time the Fed rate decreased in July 2019. The number 2 area was tighter than the number 1 area, proving that some 1y-2y holders did take profit, while the rest of them kept holding BTC and accordingly became the 3y-5y holders in the number 3 area (the pale green color).
The letter B was where the BTC price was very low and the buying activity of 3y-5y holders was strongest. In the letter C area, the number 3 area started to get smaller in the bull market. This is the time when those long-term holders took profit gradually.
The number 4 area, this area is extremely small, which means that there were not many long-term holders remained as well as most of them already sold BTC to cash out.
Based on the above data, we can see that if history repeats itself, this period is seen as the chance to buy more BTC. Then, we will wait to take profit when the Fed rate starts to be lowered.
Hope that this analysis post can help you!
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